Cass Transportation has released its monthly Cass Freight Index, revealing that shipments fell in April, while the amount spent on freight rose. Highlights include:

Cass Freight Index - Shipments

• The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.4% y/y in April, but rose 0.4% m/m, building on a 10.4% m/m gain in February and a 3.0% gain in March.

• In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, shipments rose 0.6% m/m in the third straight gain, increasing the chances of a 2H recovery. 

• At the April SA rate, this index would rise 1.7% y/y in 2H’26.

• LTL tonnage trends are improving for some fleets, which bodes well for continued improvement in shipment trends in the coming months. Tightness in the dry van TL market is starting to radiate to other modes, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well.

The normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down just 1% y/y in May.

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 3.5% y/y in April, slowing from 4.2% in March.

• In SA terms, the index rose 1.2% m/m in April, after a 2.4% m/m increase in March.

After a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, the expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.

Cass Truckload Linehaul Index

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 3.2% m/m in April, after a 0.5% decline in March.

• After almost no m/m change in February and March, the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 3.2% m/m in April, to a 5.6% y/y increase.

• After a brief lull, TL rates have resumed their upward march, and are likely to continue in this direction with spot rates up 25% y/y in April. In our (ACT Research’s) view, an incipient driver shortage is a key factor behind the recent turn in market dynamics, among other capacity constraints.

• This index reflects the whole for-hire market, both spot and contract rates.

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.

ACT Freight Expectations 

A supply-driven freight cycle doesn’t imply strong volumes, and with higher fuel prices sapping consumer spending, and rising interest rates sapping the housing market, this time is no different. Improving survey data, including a jump in the ACT For-Hire Volume Index, suggest our friends at medium and large dry van and reefer fleets are beginning to see significantly stronger demand, even as the broader market does not. The source of this early demand increase is primarily capacity reduction, which has accelerated this year due to an incipient driver shortage.

While the goods economy is providing little lift, the key question becomes, how bad will the driver situation get? In a word, worse. Truckload spot rates have risen materially in recent months as the ACT For-Hire Driver Availability Index has declined. This index was above 50, meaning a surfeit, rather than a shortage, from June 2022 to December 2025, 43 straight months. It fell to 30.4 in April. New FMCSA regulations have acted as a catalyst, and seem likely to result in tighter capacity and higher rates from here.